کانال تلگرام "Demographics Now and Then"

Demographics Now and Then

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به‌روزرسانی شده: March 11, 2026 at 2:16 AM

Demographics Now and Then

Channel on Demographic Trends & Related Global Developments

@dem0graphics offers specialized information about channel and related for subscribers interested in World News

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Demographics Now and Then

۲۲ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۰۲:۴۸

📷 Photo

South Korean fertility rate roughly tracking (& even exceeding) this recovery in 2024, 2025, & with preliminaries in 2026 btw…

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Demographics Now and Then

۲۲ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۰۲:۴۸

In reference to Ukrainian demographics catastrophic is an understatement. After a terrible 2025 births fall another 16% in January and February of 2026. TFR well⬇️1.0. Unless millions of Ukrainians return, Ukraine will demographically dissolve. One two punch of collapsing births & mass flight of young women due to war is lethal. Sadly millions assimilated are abroad unlikely to return.

The Ukrainian comeback cohort born 2008-2013 has a massive component that has now grown up abroad. The eldest were 14 when they left Ukraine and 18 now the youngest were 8-9 and are now 12-13. Those are core development years.

https://x.com/_kinez_/status/2028218465509605484

View on X (Twitter)

2,330

Demographics Now and Then

۲۲ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۰۲:۴۸

The reason we have a global fertility crisis is because culture has changed
in an inhuman way.  Humans are created for belonging, purpose, family,
community,shared struggle,& interdependence not consumerism,
career-firstism, digital substitutes for relationships, & individualism.

Cash handouts do not fix this, tax breaks don’t fix this, & disingenuous
culture wars certainly don’t fix it. The “culture” created over the past
several decades is hurting society.  It has pushed isolation, made irl social
interaction harder, & rewarded horrible social behavior.

Virtually every member of the political, business, & tech elite is fighting
to preserve this negative “culture” so don’t look to politicians, tech billionaires, or social media personalities to turn things around.  Do it in your own life.

Put away the phone more & more each day (remember that social media is not real life).  Don’t get caught up in the noise or the scroll as it is custom designed to make you feel empty & craving it more each day.  Keep the strongest bonds with your family & friends.

Young Millennials, Zoomers & Gen Alphas are the future.  If they can’t break free of the hellish culture that has been foisted upon them our national future is cooked.  It will be a long trek to fix things , but it’s on a path that we humans were meant to walk.

2,630

Demographics Now and Then

۲۲ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۰۲:۴۸

Uzbekistan falling from very healthy fertility back in the direction of replacement rapidly. Fell to 3.21 in 2025 from 3.45 in 2023 and 3.35 in 2024. Will likely fall to around 3.0 this year. Likely to be around replacement by 2030.

https://x.com/andyd10/status/2028172156958306743

View on X (Twitter)

2,050

Demographics Now and Then

۲۲ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۰۲:۴۸

📷 Photo

According to the UN the fertility rate of ultra impoverished  South Sudan crashed from above 5.0 in 2014 to just ~3.85 less than a decade later (in 2023).   Over the same period births plummeted from around 440,000 in 2014 to just ~330,000 in 2023.  Demographic collapse is happening almost everywhere.

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Demographics Now and Then

۲۲ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۰۲:۴۸

📷 Photo

Northeast China (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning) is a real‑time experiment in demographic disintegration. Home to abandoned apartments, shuttered schools, collapsing local tax bases, hospitals consolidating/closing, & entire towns with just elderly, & losing 10% of population a decade.

The region lost ~1,000,000 people in 2024 alone with Heilongjiang losing 428,000, Liaoning 270,000, & Jilin 221,000.

https://www.visiontimes.com/2025/11/26/is-chinas-northeast-disappearing-ghost-cities-spread-as-housing-prices-collapse.html

2,620

Demographics Now and Then

۲۲ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۰۲:۴۸

Gen Alpha in Laos, Honduras, and Papua New Guinea will be far larger than that of Taiwan.  That of Nepal, Guatemala, & South Sudan, will be far larger than that of South Korea. While TFR is falling almost everywhere how fast & far will determine the destiny of nations.

Currently Laos, Honduras, & PNG have less than half the population of Taiwan. Guatemala has around a third of the population of the RoK & South Sudan around a fourth.

2,260

Demographics Now and Then

۲۲ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۰۲:۴۸

Turkmenistan has recently acknowledged that mass emigration is a major crisis and dramatically increased restrictions on emigration. But as such a high percentage of the Turkmen population has already left it may be a case of too little too late. https…

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Demographics Now and Then

۲۲ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۰۲:۴۸

~200,000 war brides & military spouses immigrated to the U. S. from East & Southeast Asia between 1945 & 1975. The specific number of spouses from 1947 to 1975 from Japan totaled 66,681, from Korea 28,205, from the Philippines 51,747, from Thailand 11,660, & from Vietnam 8,040.

Interesting piece of military & demographic history.  If this sort of demographic/social history interests you then you may want to look at David Courtright’s “Violent Land: Single Men and Social Disorder from the Frontier to the Inner City” & similar books.

1,870

Demographics Now and Then

۲۲ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۰۲:۴۸

📷 Photo

The ultra religious in Israel are the ones driving Israeli Jewish TFR so far above Muslim & Christian TFR in the region. Ultra-Orthodox Haredi, while politically supporting Netanyahu’s coalition government and policy in the region, overwhelmingly refuse to serve in the military. The see the IDF as an aggressive secularizing force.

The spectacular increase in the percentage of Israel that will be Haredi in 2050, and the corresponding decline in the proportion of secular Israelis, will obviously have profound economic and national security implications for Israel.

10,800

Demographics Now and Then

۲۰ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۰۳:۵۱

Central Asian Gen Alpha to be larger than that of Russia despite having around half the population. Even if fertility rates continue to decline, Central Asia (TJ, KZ, UZ, KG, TM) likely to have brighter demographic future than most. Only mass emigration…

2,290

Demographics Now and Then

۱۸ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۲۳:۲۰

📷 Photo

Central Asian Gen Alpha to be larger than that of Russia despite having around half the population. Even if fertility rates continue to decline, Central Asia (TJ, KZ, UZ, KG, TM) likely to have brighter demographic future than most. Only mass emigration holds them back.

2,110

Demographics Now and Then

۱۷ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۱۰:۴۳

Countries never see how bad emigration can be for them until it’s far too late. Colombia could easily turn into jumbo Bulgaria or Romania demographically within decades. El Salvador in similar condition but much smaller country. Cuba in an emigration & low fertility spiral.

What Eastern Europe went through from 1990-2010 much of Latam seems doomed to repeat.

2,660

Demographics Now and Then

۱۷ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۱۰:۴۳

Russian births hit their lowest level on record in 2025. Under 1.2 million Russians were born and over 1.8 million died. The fertility rate of the Russian federation also broke below 1.4 for the first time in almost two decades.

https://united24media.com/latest-news/russias-fertility-rate-falls-for-10th-straight-year-reaching-new-low-15285

2,480

Demographics Now and Then

۱۷ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۱۰:۴۳

📷 Photo

Many Russia observers in the media consistently overlook the 2008-2016 Russian comeback cohort. That cohort saw between 1,713,000-1,942,000 births annually. The youngest in this cohort turn 18 this year. Russian conscription age begins at 18. Russian 1994-2003 cohort was the smallest & is currently impacting births.

Even if TFR stays low (below 1.4) expect births to steadily increase over the next decade as the larger cohort born from 2008 onward gradually becomes parents.

2,600

Demographics Now and Then

۱۷ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۱۰:۴۳

📷 Photo

Ethnic Chinese TFR around the world is hitting new depths. There are a total of ~6,900,000 Chinese Malaysians (that is a larger number than the entire population of Singapore). Their TFR for 2025 was just 0.67! That’s worse than the catastrophic levels we…

2,390

Demographics Now and Then

۱۵ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۲۳:۱۲

Ethnic Chinese TFR around the world is hitting new depths. There are a total of ~6,900,000 Chinese Malaysians (that is a larger number than the entire population of Singapore). Their TFR for 2025 was just 0.67! That’s worse than the catastrophic levels we saw in Taiwan (~0.72).

https://x.com/birthgauge/status/2023127994219528351

View on X (Twitter)

1,840

Demographics Now and Then

۱۴ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۲۰:۴۵

Absolutely incredible that China will likely see a population decline over the next 50 years that is equal to the entire population of the United States.

1,650

Demographics Now and Then

۱۳ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۱۷:۵۵

Article on emigration of young South Koreans today finds that intense social pressures are main reasons for emigration.  Specifically,the ultra-selective education system,constant & fierce professional competition, & rigid/unreasonable social expectations.

SOLUTION: breakdown the ultra-selective education system and ultra-competitive job atmosphere.  Doing so will not lead to the economic collapse of South Korea.  On the contrary, its continued presence imperils the very existence of future Korean generations.

This needs to be done immediately as the educational,professional,& social pressure makes up to 20,000 young Koreans annually feel stifled & miserable enough to emigrate.  A significant number for RoK. Just imagine how those who feel forced to stay feel.  No wonder TFR is 0.80…

South Korean society should also make crucial jobs that are currently seen as inauspicious and undesirable (many trades, running family businesses, factory jobs etc) have the social standing they deserve. This is a huge but essential shift in current thinking.

https://www.planete-coree.com/en/background-to-emigration-of-young-south-koreans/

2,100

Demographics Now and Then

۱۳ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۰۵:۰۶

📷 Photo

Italy has one of the oldest electorates in the world. Gen X, Boomers, & Silent Generation voters are up to 73% of the electorate today. Young people have very little political voice. In 2029 this older cohort will still make up two thirds of the electorate. Only in 2033 will Millennials, Zoomers, & the oldest Generation Alpha’s combine to form 43% of the electorate.

So what does this mean? The old cohort will continue to dictate who is elected, how money is spent, & what becomes law. Those under 45 largely forced to just take it or emigrate. & many are voting with their feet.

2,120

Demographics Now and Then

۱۰ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۰۳:۳۰

📷 Photo

This is the opposite of what is happening to the electorates in Germany, Italy, and Spain.  There the older electorate is getting larger as young boomers and Xers form an enormous chunk of the population (while Xers are the smallest completed postwar US generation).

Political systems dominated by older voters who push their agenda at the price of young voters interests darken their views of the future, making them less optimistic and less likely to want to have children.

1,890

Demographics Now and Then

۵ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۲۱:۲۳

It is extremely likely that Gen Alpha, Zoomers, & Millennials will collectively make up two thirds of the American electorate by the 2032 election.  This demographic is way more up for grabs than people think.  By 2032 they could be largely right/even far right, or progressive, or centrist, or independent (though this is least likely for the youngest cohorts).

Events matter more than anything as they always have. Events shape and radicalize more than any pundit ever accounts for.

The older, largely conservative, voting block of today will be less than a fifth of actual voters by 2032.  Their numbers also decline by almost 2,000,000 annually and the Xers taking their place are far more politically heterogeneous than Silents or older Boomers were.  They also don’t get their news mainly from television.

1,480

Demographics Now and Then

۵ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۲۱:۲۳

It is extremely likely that Gen Alpha, Zoomers, & Millennials will collectively make up two thirds of the American electorate by the 2032 election.  This demographic is way more up for grabs than people think.  By 2032 they could be largely right/even far…

1,230

Demographics Now and Then

۴ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۱۴:۴۴

The disintegration of the Warsaw Pact in 1989 kicked off a surge of return migration which continued into the 2000s.  During that time ~9M ethnic Russians, ~3.8M ethnic Germans, & ~1M ethnic Kazakhs returned to their ethnic homelands.  Huge population movements also occurred in the Caucasus & smaller returns of Pontic Greeks & Ingrian Finns from the USSR.

1,720

Demographics Now and Then

۲ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۲۳:۵۵

The fertility rate of India has been remarkable stable at almost replacement (1.9-2.0) since 2019.  So many incorrectly predicted that Indian TFR would fall to 1.5 or below by 2030 which now looks extremely unlikely.  In fact, there are pretty decent odds India’s population will get to 1.7 billion before topping out.  The most populous Northern/Hindi belt states have also kept their TFRs well above replacement between 2.2–2.8.

1,390

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Demographics Now and Then

۲ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۲۳:۵۵

It is a painful irony the South Korea built one of the most educated, productive, technologically advanced societies on our planet but in doing so, it accidentally created conditions that make many young people feel like life is an uphill marathon they never agreed to run.  In building an economy and academia that places so much emphasis on being the highest performer they sowed the seeds of their own demographic destruction.

1,240

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Demographics Now and Then

۲۸ بهمن ۱۴۰۴، ۱۶:۴۸

This will play out in East Asia & Europe on a far more dramatic scale as so many jobs are made available to much much smaller follow on generations. While the Zoomer Generation is huge in the United States and can absorb basically all of the incoming Boomer vacancies, Zoomer cohorts in Europe and East Asia are much smaller and there will be a large excess of unfilled jobs. This will both drive wages up & create significant job destruction.

Unfortunately it will also fuel calls from some European and East Asian politicians for mass migration to fill these jobs. Such immigration has an extremely patchy record of being allocated to parts of the labor force where it is actually most needed.

Europe & East Asia may be much better served by going all in to use robotics and AI to replace the most low skill low pay jobs mass immigration usually fills and leaving the higher paying more human centric roles to the smaller Zoomer citizen cohort. Thus they can enjoy better pay and there will be less need for mass immigration which can be societally disruptive.

1,620

Demographics Now and Then

۲۸ بهمن ۱۴۰۴، ۱۶:۴۸

The under 50 cohort in South Korea is disintegrating at an astonishing pace. Were almost 36 million Koreans aged 0-49 in the RoK when this demographic peaked in 2000. Today there are close to 10 million less. RoK on track to lose more than half its population by end of century.

1,380

Demographics Now and Then

۲۸ بهمن ۱۴۰۴، ۱۶:۴۸

The “Great Retirement” in the United States caused by the largest wave to leave the workforce in American history is creating tens of millions of job openings for younger Americans aged 18-45. Jobs from electricians to police officers to maritime trades to property managers to HVAC technicians will be abundant and pay more than ever. As thousands upon thousands of retirement communities are built there will be a plethora of jobs supporting those as well as in estate sales and management, financial services, home modification businesses, retirement community operations (including robotics and technology management), construction, insurance adjusting, & local and State government.

We are taking about 30 million replacement jobs from 2025-2040 from Boomers & the oldest Gen Xers retiring & 12 million new jobs created to support Boomers in retirement.

1,510

Demographics Now and Then

۲۷ بهمن ۱۴۰۴، ۱۱:۱۳

By the late 2030s & early 2040s South Korea will be in the very depths of their demographic crisis & this is already fully baked in (as you can see clearly in the population pyramid).  By 2037 close to a million South Koreans will enter full retirement annually…

8,470

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Demographics Now and Then

Channel on Demographic Trends & Related Global Developments

@dem0graphics offers specialized information about channel and related for subscribers interested in World News

رتبه‌بندی

رتبه‌بندی جهانی

#5146بدون تغییر

رتبه‌بندی زبان

#1080بدون تغییر

رتبه‌بندی دسته‌بندی

#41بدون تغییر

رشد مشترکان (29 روز گذشته)

مجموع: 3.7K

رشد 24 ساعت: -1 0%

آخرین پست‌ها

Demographics Now and Then

۲۲ اسفند ۱۴۰۴، ۰۲:۴۸

📷 Photo

South Korean fertility rate roughly tracking (& even exceeding) this recovery in 2024, 2025, & with preliminaries in 2026 btw…

1,880

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